The Phillies avoided arbitration with first baseman Ryan Howard on Sunday by agreeing to a 3-year $54 million deal with the 29-year-old slugger. Most Philly fans will probably be glad the team finally locked up the former MVP to a new deal, but if you look a little closer this wasn’t as much of a no-brainer as you might think.
Let me re-phrase that: Ryan Howard is not worth the kind of money he is now making.
Now you might be saying to yourself, “This Foley guy is nuts! Howard is an offensive beast and one of the best left-handed power hitters in the game!” That much is certainly hard to deny. The big guy hit 48 homers and drove in 146 runs last season (yet somehow wasn’t an All-Star) and he was a big part of the Phils run to the World Series. Here’s the kicker…a closer look at Howard’s 2008 season shows when the Phillies needed him the most he folded faster than MIT students at an origami competition.
I know I mentioned above Howard’s impressive offensive numbers, but there was one stat that many Phillies fans are undoubtedly familiar with. RyHo hit at just a .251 clip over the course of the season, and he struggled mightily early on. Here’s a look a Howard’s batting average month-by-month:
March/April: .172
May: .238
June: .234
July: .311
August: .213
Sept/Oct: .352
I will give Ryan credit for his performance in September and October, but those monthly numbers really bring into question his consistency. Can Howard be counted on to carry a team? Only if he isn’t having a bad month. What about his batting statistics on an inning-by-inning basis?
Innings 1-3 (210 AB): .305 (BA), .380 (OBP), 21 HR/67 RBI, 28 BB, 55 K
Innings 4-6 (213 AB): .296, .362, 18/54, 22, 64
Innings 7-9 (177 AB): .141, .263, 9/25, 27, 76
Innings 10+ (10 AB): .100, .357, 4, 4 (all 4 walks were intentional).
What do those stats tell you? As the game went on Howard struck out more, got on base and hit less, and just generally became less of a factor on the final outcome. Is that the kind of player you want to invest $15-20 mil. a year in? Even back in 2007 Howard hit just .223 in innings 7-9 and his strikeout numbers increased. Just for the sake of comparison, let’s take a look at Albert Pujols’ inning-by-inning hitting stats from 2008:
Innings 1-3 (207 AB): .406 (BA), .492 (OBP), 10 HR/45 RBI, 37 BB, 19 K
Innings 4-6 (166 AB): .301, .422, 14/41, 36, 19
Innings 7-9 (142 AB): .352, .472, 12/28, 31, 14
Innings 10+ (9 AB): .333, .333, 1/2, 0, 2
Pujols’ numbers through innings 4-9 are far superior to Howard’s, and while he generally doesn’t hit for quite as much power or drive in as many runs his other stats are much higher. As for RBI, keep in mind Pujols played for a worse offensive team so he had fewer chances to drive in runs than Howard did. Albert is set to make just over $14 million this season…Howard will make $15 million in the first year of his new contract (which jumps to $19 mil next year and $20 mil in 2011.) Who would you rather have on your team? Factor in that Pujols is a much better defensive player at 1B (.996 fielding percentage to Howard’s .988) and you have yourself a REAL no-brainer.
Am I saying that Howard is a bad baseball player? Not at all, but what I am saying is he isn’t worth the $54 million he’ll now be making over the next three seasons. At least not until he learns to be a more consistent contributor to the team’s offense.
