The day has finally arrived people. The Fightin’ Phils title defense starts tonight at the Bank against the Braves, and the talk of the town has been about their chances at a repeat.
Phil Sheridan had an interesting column today about how the Phils really didn’t come close to meeting their potential in ’08, and I think that is an entirely valid argument to make. Ryan Howard struggled for much of the season hitting just .251, Jimmy Rollins had a very average statistical season by his standards (.277/11/59) and Chase Utley played half the season hurt. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that if all three of them stay healthy they should all play much better this season.
That’s just a small part of what needs to happen for the Phils to repeat, though. Without further ado, here is my Peter King-inspired list of predictions and observations about the ’09-’10 Phils:
1. The Phillies title hopes hinge on the top of the rotation.
Cole Hamels HAS to stay healthy, Brett Myers HAS to regain his form from the second half of last season, and Jamie Moyer HAS to avoid getting too old too quickly. If those three guys can anchor the rotation the Phillies will be in very good shape.
2. Raul Ibanez will be a more than suitable replacement for Pat the Bat.
Burrell might hit more homers in Tampa, but people seem to forget he only hit .250 last season. Ibanez will hit for a higher average and drive in more runs than PTB this season and by the All Star break Philly fans will have no doubt in their minds that Ruben Amaro Jr. made the right decision in letting Pat go.
3. The Phils will have to have a better regular season to win the division.
92 wins was just enough to take the NL East last year, but both the Mets and Braves made big moves to improve their rosters in the offseason. Even the Nats brought in Adam Dunn, and the Marlins may have the best rotation in the division. I’d be willing to bet the NL East will still be up for grabs heading into the last few weeks of the regular season (between New York and Philly) and the Phils will clinch the division crown for the third year in a row with 94 wins. But it’s worth pointing out…
4. If the division comes down to the last week of the season, the Phils will have the advantage.
The Mets wrap up their season with three three-game series…two on the road against the Nats and Marlins, and one at home against the Astros. For the Phillies, they finish with two four-games series against the Brewers and Astros, and a three-game series with the Marlins (their last seven games are at home.) The Marlins always seem to play late season spoiler, but being at home for their last two series of the season should give the Phillies a big boost.
5. The Phillies will really miss J.C. Romero.
All due respect to Jack Taschner, Scott Eyre, and J.A. Happ, but the Phillies will be counting down the days until Romero gets back to the end of the bullpen. Taschner has a reputation for walking batters, Eyre has looked shaky in Spring Training and Happ is better suited as a starter. The one plus is once Romero gets back from his 50-game suspension the Phillies will have plenty of valuable depth in the pen that they can use for a trade at some point in the season.
6. The Phils will look to add a right-handed power bat to the bench.
The fact that the Phillies took serious looks at Nomar, Ty Wigginton, and Sheffield should tell you they aren’t entirely comfortable with having Miguel Cairo as their right-handed guy off the bench. I really wouldn’t be surprised if at some point they make a trade for a right-handed hitter who ideally can play outfield too (outfield depth is shaky with Matt Stairs/Eric Bruntlett as the fourth OF on the roster.)
7. Keep an eye on Jason Donald, John Mayberry, and Lou Marson in the minors.
I fully expect to see at least two of these three guys make an appearance for the big club this season. Donald will be a valuable insurance policy if an infielder gets hurt, and the same applies to Marson if Ruiz/Coste can’t get the job done.
8. Chan Ho Park will be a pleasant surprise as the fifth starter.
I was as skeptical as anybody when the Phillies signed Park as a starter, but he clearly still has something left in the tank. Park was 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA suring Spring Training, but most important of all he struck out 25 batters and walked just two. Am I saying he’ll be pitching at a Cy Young level? Absolutely not, but he will bring more to the table than the Phils fifth starters the past few years have.
9. Chase Utley will take a month or so until he is back to his old self.
Chase hit just .231 in Spring Training coming off hip surgery, but he did hit two homers in just 39 at bats. He’ll get off to a slow start this season too, but will eventually regain his form. Look for Howard and Rollins to carry the load for the first few weeks until that happens.
10. The Phillies will repeat as World Champions.
Maybe this is just the optimist in me (he makes rare appearances on this blog) but if there was ever a team that could pull it off this decade it will be the Phillies. Obviously health will be the deciding factor in whether it happens or not, but if Howard, Rollins, and Utley find their old form and the pitching holds up (especially the pen without Romero) the Phils will be more than capable of making a run at the Series. The NL East is tougher and teams will be gunning for the defending champs, but the talent and chemistry is there for another long postseason run.
