For our second “You got questions, We got answers” post, we’re going to go with a Phillies question.
Reader Craig Allen, from Twitter, asks this question:
Which Phillies starter will have the most wins this season?
This is a very loaded question. WIth a top of the rotation starter like Cole Hamels, he would be expected to win the most. However, he is usually matched up against the ace of the other team, so he has a tougher chance to get wins. He can usually rise up to the level of compettion, but he also depends on the team behind him to beat the other team’s ace. I feel the Phillies will do a much better job of that this season..
Brett Myers is in the 2nd slot. He made a few mistakes on Opening Night, but after the first two innings, he pitched pretty well. His success this season depends on whether we see the Brett from the first half or Brett from the second half of last season.
Jamie Moyer is run out there in the 3rd slot. Many people think he should be the 4th and he’s only put in the 34d slot out of respect. That’s bullshit. Moyer led the World Series champions in wins last season. And his ego doesn’t need to be stoked in order for him to be happy. He tells all the pitchers in spring training every year that he wants them to take his job, but he’s still out there at the tender age of 46. He’ll get some wins, but I don’t think he’ll lead the team again.
Joe the Pitcher is out there in the 4th slot. He pitched very well for the Phillies after coming over from Oakland. That might have been due to the unfamiliarity of the batters in the National League, but I think it was because he knew what he was doing. Blanton could easily be a 2 or 3 in many cities, but with this team, he just happens to be in the 4th slot.
Chan Ho Park was brought in because of his reliever but ended up winning the 5th spot in a close race over J.A. Happ. Park has been a good starring pitcher in the past and pitched very well during the spring. I don’t think he goes the whole season as a starter due to injuries or needs in the bullpen and spends a lot of time in the pen. At the end of the season, I see Happ ending up with more starts than Park.
Here are my projections for wins as a starter for the Phillies:
Hamels: Between 20 and 22
Myers: Between 12-14
Moyer: Between 10-12
Blanton: Between 14-16
Park: Between 8-10
Happ: Between 8-10
Those are my completely unscientific projections, made off of nothing but my gut. They’ll probably end up being completely off, but whatever. That’s what I think.
How about you? Leave your projections in the comments.
-KK
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