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You got questions, We got answers: Which Phillies starter will have the most wins this season?

Posted by Kieran Kelly On April - 7 - 2009

For our second “You got questions, We got answers” post, we’re going to go with a Phillies question.

Reader Craig Allen, from Twitter, asks this question:

Which Phillies starter will have the most wins this season?

AB8C1DE3-2C9C-4F7F-91EF-5627ECC345C0.jpgThis is a very loaded question. WIth a top of the rotation starter like Cole Hamels, he would be expected to win the most. However, he is usually matched up against the ace of the other team, so he has a tougher chance to get wins. He can usually rise up to the level of compettion, but he also depends on the team behind him to beat the other team’s ace. I feel the Phillies will do a much better job of that this season..

Brett Myers is in the 2nd slot. He made a few mistakes on Opening Night, but after the first two innings, he pitched pretty well. His success this season depends on whether we see the Brett from the first half or Brett from the second half of last season.

Jamie Moyer is run out there in the 3rd slot. Many people think he should be the 4th and he’s only put in the 34d slot out of respect. That’s bullshit. Moyer led the World Series champions in wins last season. And his ego doesn’t need to be stoked in order for him to be happy. He tells all the pitchers in spring training every year that he wants them to take his job, but he’s still out there at the tender age of 46. He’ll get some wins, but I don’t think he’ll lead the team again.

Joe the Pitcher is out there in the 4th slot. He pitched very well for the Phillies after coming over from Oakland. That might have been due to the unfamiliarity of the batters in the National League, but I think it was because he knew what he was doing. Blanton could easily be a 2 or 3 in many cities, but with this team, he just happens to be in the 4th slot.

Chan Ho Park was brought in because of his reliever but ended up winning the 5th spot in a close race over J.A. Happ. Park has been a good starring pitcher in the past and pitched very well during the spring. I don’t think he goes the whole season as a starter due to injuries or needs in the bullpen and spends a lot of time in the pen. At the end of the season, I see Happ ending up with more starts than Park.

Here are my projections for wins as a starter for the Phillies:

Hamels: Between 20 and 22
Myers: Between 12-14
Moyer: Between 10-12
Blanton: Between 14-16
Park: Between 8-10
Happ: Between 8-10

Those are my completely unscientific projections, made off of nothing but my gut. They’ll probably end up being completely off, but whatever. That’s what I think.

How about you? Leave your projections in the comments.

-KK

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  • http://sportsfountainhead.blogspot.com Joseph Mays

    The low end of those predictions results in 72 wins from starters. I’d take that.

    I’m afraid Hamels won’t make it to 20 though because of potential injuries. Plus the offense inexplicably naps when he’s on the mound, at least last year.

  • http://www.twitter.com/kierankelly Kieran Kelly

    72 wins out of the rotation would be huge. I really hope it happens.

    I am worried about Hamels as well. Both injuries and the offense’s inability to score runs last season while he was pitching.

    -KK

  • http://slotcarssets.com/ threio

    ditto on Hamels, don’t think he gets more than 18 wins, he justs doesn’t get enough run support whether healthy or not.

    I am going with Joe Blanton this season. He appears to be real comfortable in that 3rd/4th spot in the rotation. 18 wins maybe be much, but a little optimism doesn’t hurt.

    Myers will bounce back and give us 16 this season, what numbers Park, Happ and Kendrick put up is what concerns me at the moment.
    Forgot to add good post. Looking forward to reading your next one!

  • http://www.twitter.com/kierankelly Kieran Kelly

    The health issues aren’t my major concern with Hamels. I’m more concerned about the offense’s ability to score runs for him.

    I was thinking Blanton may lead the team as well. If it’s not Hamels, it’s going to be Joe the Pitcher.

    Thanks for reading. Be sure to send in any questions you want me to talk about next. I love the discussion, trying to get more people here involved.

    -KK

  • http://www.phillieslongdrive.com Chris

    I jsut hope Hamels gets the run support he deserves. If he does he can definitely hit that 20-22 mark. Nice post and nice answer to, like you said, a very loaded question.

  • http://4forfour.wordpress.com Craig Allen

    Thanks for answering my question, that’s awesome! My pick is Brett Myers, mostly because we NEED him to be consistent and hopefully he won’t get sent down to the minors this year if he can keep his head on straight!! Not Hamels just because of injury questions, although he would be my second pick assuming he gets and stays healthy. I also have questions about Moyer’s age, but I think the main reason he won so many games last year was great run support. Blanton should fit in nicely in the 4th spot, and who knows if Park will even remain the 5th starter all year? I’d love to see Happ back in that role at some point. Here’s my breakdown (completely random guess):

    Wins by starters:

    Myers: 16
    Hamels: 14
    Blanton: 11
    Moyer: 10
    Park: 7

    And hey if you want another question, How likely is it that Lidge will be perfect again this year? Looks good so far.

  • http://www.twitter.com/kierankelly Kieran Kelly

    Craig,

    I agree that there are a lot of questions about this rotation this year. Can Hamels stay healthy? Can Myers get consistent? Can Moyer stay alive? Can Park stay in the rotation?

    IT’s going to be a very interesting year, as evidenced by yesterday’s game.

    I love it.

    -KK

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