Yes, it’s that time of the year…time for Phinally Philly’s First Annual NHL Playoff Preview!
A few quick notes before we begin. First, you’ll notice some teeth at the bottom of each series preview. Those will rate how exciting/competitive the matchup will be on a scale of 1-4 teeth (4 being the most exciting.)
Also, this preview features picks from both Kieran Kelly (our resident Phillies expert) and Mr. Sixer himself Mike Santa Barbara. Chris Shafer declined to participate lest he humiliate all of us with his incredibly vast hockey knowledge, but you can see his thoughts on the Flyers/Pens series in a few previous posts. For what it’s worth, I didn’t read any of their predictions prior to making my own.
Now break out the pom poms/towels, the mullets, the Molson, and the playoff beards…let’s get to it, starting with the
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Boston Bruins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Foley’s Take: The Bruins were the surprise story of the NHL this season, and while many of us were waiting for this team to come back down to Earth (aka the seventh or eight seed) they stayed at the top of the Eastern Conference for much of the year. A lot of the credit for Boston’s resurgence has to go to the outstanding performance of goaltenders Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez, along with breakout years from David Krejci (73 points in 82 games), Phil Kessel (who I drafted in round 14 on my fantasy team…booyah!), Dennis Wideman, and Michael Ryder.
As for the Habs, they were expected to be the top seed in the East at the beginning of the season, only to struggle mightily and barely make the playoffs. They have the talent to play with Boston, but whether they actually bother showing up has yet to be seen. Young goalie Carey Price had an up and down season and he’ll need to play at the top of his game for the Canadiens to have a chance.
THE VERDICT:
DAVE – The Bruins haven’t won a playoff series since 1999…their decade long drought ends in ’09. Au revoir les Canadiens. Bruins in 5.
MIKE – Montreal has just flat out fallen apart lately, and with injuries and the like the Bruins will be too much for them to handle. Bruins in 5.
KIERAN - Bruins in 6.
(2) Washington Capitals vs. (7) New York Rangers
Foley’s Take: This series might be a bit more compelling than most people expect. The Caps cruise into the playoffs with an explosive offense and the second best powerplay in the league, but their penalty killing and goaltending leave a lot to be desired. Alex Ovechkin is the X-factor (duh…we should charge for this analysis) and neutralizing him will be the key to the series for the Rangers.
While the Caps have a terrific powerplay, the Rangers actually have the best penalty killing percentage in the NHL at 87.8%. Unfortunately they also have the second worst powerplay, converting on just 13.9% of their chances on the man advantage. Henrik Lundquist may steal a game or two for the Rangers, but I see absolutely no way they can hang with the Caps over the course of a seven-game series, no matter how big a liability Jose Theodore in between the pipes.
OVER/UNDER:
2.5 – Number of bonehead penalties Sean Avery takes that end up killing his team.
3.5 – Number of weak goals Jose the Sieve allows that will make Caps fans yearn for the days of Cristobal Huet.
THE VERDICT:
DAVE – Henrik steals a couple games for the fiesty Rangers, but the Washington Ovechkins will move on. Caps in 6.
MIKE – Rangers had to rely on desperate hockey and having a goaltender play out of his mind to barely sneak in to the playoffs. Not sure the Rangers can contend with the well rounded Caps. Caps in 6.
KIERAN – Caps in 5.
(3) New Jersey Devils vs. (6) Carolina Hurricanes
Foley’s Take: The Hurricanes were one of the hottest teams in the NHL down the stretch, and the acquisition of Erik Cole at the trade deadline really helped kickstart the team’s offense (he had 15 points in the 17 games he played for the Canes.) Cam Ward was also stellar in goal racking up 39 wins and a .916 save percentage.
As for the Devils, they went through much of the season without Martin Brodeur and still finished atop a very competitive Atlantic Division. These ain’t the Devils of the past 10 years either…these guys can score on a regular basis, which is a scary thought given who they have in goal.
KEEP AN EYE ON:
Zach Parise, F, NJD – Parise had 94 points this season and has blossomed into a legitimate superstar. How he’s flown under the radar for so long is baffling, but it might have something to do with the fact that he plays in New Jersey.
BUT DON’T FORGET ABOUT:
Patrik Elias, F, NJD – He had to carry the load for so long offensively for the Devils, I wonder how he feels now that he is overshadowed by Parise. For some reason I don’t think he minds too much, but with 78 points he is just a big a threat now as he was before.
THE VERDICT:
DAVE – The Canes are easily the hotter team, and matchup pretty well with Jersey on paper. The difference will be Martin Brodeur, who will outplay Cam Ward enough to help the Devils into the next round. Devils in 6.
MIKE – The Devils have not been playing well as of late however I believe the Canes are the easiest draw in the East. Martin Broduer is built for this stage and I think a team like Carolina will play right into New Jersey’s game plan. Devils in 5.
KIERAN – **UPSET ALERT** Carolina in 6.
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers
Foley’s Take: This will be the best first round series in the East, and maybe even the entire NHL. The Pens have two of the better players in the league in Malkin and Crosby (more popularly known as Cindy Crybaby) but their offensive depth beyond those two is lacking. The Penguins are not nearly as good as they were last season, but the two names I already mentioned make them a dangerous playoff foe.
The Flyers have the talent to be one of the best teams in the NHL, especially with the emergence of Claude Giroux and the return of Danny Briere. The problem is they are more up and down than your bipolar ex-girlfriend. If they can limit Malkin and Crybaby, they should be in great shape. The blueprint the Orange and Black need to follow came in a late season 3-1 win over the Penguins where they held Evgeni and Cindy to an assist apiece and a combined -2.
OVER/UNDER:
12.5 – Number of times Cindy takes a dive then complains to the ref regardless of whether it was called or not.
4.5 – Number of times Mike Richards tries to goad Cindy into a fight, only to have her run away with her tail between her legs and let someone else do the dirty work.
THE VERDICT:
DAVE – This is going to be an incredible, physical, high-scoring series. Unlike last year the Flyers are actually healthy and a better all-around team this time around. If Marty Biron can step up like he did last postseason, the Flyers will have their revenge. Flyers in 6.
MIKE – This has the potential to be the best 1st round series in the East. Pittsburgh has been hot yes, but I think realistically they really did not want to play the Flyers first. The Flyers always play them physical and a rivalry is definitely there. The series could go either way, I just think regardless it’s going the distance. Flyers in 7.
KIERAN - Flyers in 6.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Anaheim Ducks
Foley’s Take: Flyer fans might get a kick out of watching the Ducks play not only because they have similar team colors (imitation is the sincerest form of flattery you know) but also because they play a tough, hard-hitting style and oftentimes lack discipline much like the Flyers.
Both of these teams have effective powerplays, but in the playoffs the deciding factors are often goaltending and not giving your opponent too many powerplay opportunities. The Sharks have a decisive advantage in both, considering J.S. Giguere has looked extremely shaky this season, Jonas Hiller has no playoff experience, and the Ducks are the second most penalized team in the NHL just barely ahead of, you guessed it, our Flyers.
KEEP AN EYE ON:
Bobby Ryan, F, ANA – Ryan grew up a Flyers fan (he was born in Cherry Hill, NJ) and he is one of the best young players in the league. The Ducks will need him at the top of his game to stand a chance in this series, and how he responds to playoff pressure could make or break his team’s chances.
THE VERDICT:
DAVE – The Ducks have plenty of playoff experience, and they still have Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. I just think the Sharks have too much depth and too good of goaltending for the Ducks to overcome. If Hiller or Giguere can step up their game this could be a very interesting series though. Sharks in 6.
MIKE – Anaheim played some inspired hockey late to lock up the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. San Jose just has too many weapons, Anaheim is just gonna be happy to be there. Sharks in 5.
KIERAN - Sharks in 5.
(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (7) Columbus Blue Jackets
Foley’s Take: The Red Wings probably have the most talent on their roster out of any team in the NHL, but their goalie duo of Chris Osgood and Ty Conklin might just be their Achilles Heel. This will be a David vs. Goliath battle for the Blue Jackets.
So how does Columbus stand a chance? Two words: Steve Mason. The likely NHL rookie of the year was the reason the Blue Jackets made the playoffs, and he was terrific against the Wings this season (3-2, 2.38, .930.) If he can play like that Columbus has a very real chance of an upset. The only question is whether he can maintain that level of play in a playoff enviornment, which can be a daunting task for a rookie.
I really find this series compelling because it reminds me of the 2003 matchup between the heavily-favored Wings and the Anaheim Ducks (John Buccigross sees it the same way as well.) The Ducks had a hot, young netminder by the name of J.S. Giguere (the eventual Conn Smythe winner) who stymied the Red Wings attack, and the Ducks prevailed despite having much less offensive talent. This Wings-Jackets series bears plenty of striking similarities, and if Detroit isn’t careful a huge upset could be on the horizon.
THE DECISIVE, REVEALING STAT OF THE SERIES:
When Columbus gives up the first goal, they have just a .317 winning percentage. That could be a problem against the Wings high scoring attack and top-ranked powerplay.
THE VERDICT:
DAVE – I am so tempted to take Columbus here, but Mason was pretty average towards the end of the season and I’m wondering if he isn’t wearing down. The Wings just have so much talent across the board, and if Osgood falters Conklin should be ready. I’ll take Detroit in 6, but no wins will come easy for the Wings.
MIKE – This series is very interesting, Columbus making their first playoff appearance in history, they will face an impressive Red Wings team. This could be just the series the Red Wings need to “flip the switch” early and run the table. I really think Columbus could potentially have the lead in this series perhaps stealing game one, don’t be surprised if the Blue Jackets give Detroit all they can handle. Detroit in 6.
KIERAN – Detroit in 5.
(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) St. Louis Blues
Foley’s Take: The Blues rallied late in the season behind the outstanding goaltending of Chris Mason (no relation to the Blue Jackets’ Steve) to narrowly make the playoffs. The Canucks flew under the radar for much of the season and their signing of Mats Sundin didn’t quite push them over the top like they would have hoped (he had just 28 points in 41 games.)
St. Louis has both a better power play and a better penalty kill, and these two teams are more alike than their seedings may indicate. The goaltending matchup (Luongo vs. Mason) looks very promising too. This series could honestly go either way.
THE VERDICT:
DAVE – The Blues had to scratch and claw just to make the playoffs, and I’d expect them to come out fired up and ready to play. If they can steal a game in Vancouver then the Canucks could be in for a very tough matchup. Neither team is flashy or overly-talented, but I’ll go with Roberto Luongo and his playoff experience over Chris Mason. Canucks in 6.
MIKE – The Blues really struggled early this season but turned it on late. Vancouver has been the NHL’s Jekyl and Hyde this season. At times they have looked unstoppable at others they’ve looked like a team that doesn’t belong in the playoffs. St. Louis is a scrappy team and will give Vancouver a run but in this series I’ll take the side with the better goaltending. Canucks in 6.
KIERAN – Canucks in 6.
(4) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (5) Calgary Flames
Foley’s Take: This one has the makings of a truly outstanding series. The Blackhawks are an underrated team with good goaltending (Flyer fans should be familiar with Khabibulin), defense, and some elite threats on offense (namely Havlat, Toews, and Kane.) The same can be said for the Flames, and the deadline acquisition of Olli Jokinen gave Calgary the goal-scoring center they had been looking for.
A lot will depend on the play of Miikka Kiprusoff in goal for Calgary. He picked up 45 of the 46 Flame wins this season but also had terrible GAA and save % numbers by his standards (2.84 and .903.) If he can regain his form from last season the Flames have a shot. That’s a big “if” though, just take a look at the guy’s last ten or so games and tell me he has been at all consistent.
THE VERDICT:
DAVE – Much like the Flyers/Pens series, this one looks like it’ll be a battle between two very evenly-matched teams (minus the rivalry factor.) I really like the Flames offense, with Iginla and Cammalleri leading the way, but the Hawks have the defense and goaltending to handle those threats. I’ll take Chicago in 7.
MIKE – WOW. Is all I can say about this series. It’s going to be in my mind the most entertaining series ahead of PHI/PIT and CLB/DET. It’s a shame one of them has to be eliminated , it’d be a hell of a Western Conference final match up. In the end I think Calgary has the edge in experience and a tad bit better goaltending. It’s really a toss up I’m only making a pick because I have to. It’s going to be a ridiculously entertaining series. If you know anyone who doesn’t watch hockey and you really want to sell them the game, this is the series to make them watch. Calgary in 7.
KIERAN – Chicago in 4.
