The Phils starters so far have been Chan Ho'rrible. --Photo courtesy of ESPN--
We are almost a month into the Phillies’ title defense and so far we’ve seen our fair share of blown opportunities, horrid pitching, and dramatic comebacks. Now that we are really getting a sense of what this team is capable of, I figured I’d take a quick look back at some of my key points/predictions (which I also plan on doing at the All Star Break and at the end of the regular season) to see how I fared at predicting the team’s fate.
1. The Phillies title hopes hinge on the top of the rotation.
Without a doubt, the top 3 starters HAVE to be better. While it is still too early to start panicking, the rotation as a whole has been ridiculously bad so far (to the tune of a 6.83 average ERA.) Cole hasn’t been able to stay healthy, Brett and Jamie have been up and down, and Joey B and Chan Ho have been terrible. The offense has been able to bail them out of some sure losses early on, but for this team to stand a chance at a repeat the starters will need to revert to their form from last season. Or at least not suck as badly as they have so far.
Step #1 to fix our pitching woes? Pray Cole can avoid the injury bug from here on out. Step #2? Read on to find out.
2. Raul Ibanez will be a more than suitable replacement for Pat the Bat.
I’ll let each player’s stats up to this point tell you whether I was correct with this prediction or not: Raul Ibanez (.354, 7 HRs, 19 RBIs, .426 OBP) or Pat Burrell (.253, 1 HR, 9 RBIs, .367 OBP.) Pat won’t be this bad all season, and Raul probably won’t be this good, but it’s still safe to say Ruben Amaro Jr. made the right decision to bring in the fresh blood. It’s scary to think of where this team would be without Raul Ibanez on the roster right now.
3. The Phils will have to have a better regular season to win the division.
The winning percentage for each NL East team as of May 1, 2008 (last season): Phillies .552, Mets .538, Marlins .536, Braves .444, Nats .414. This season: Marlins .609, Phillies .524, Braves .500, Mets .455, Nats .227. While the Nats may be worse so far this year, the rest of the division appears to be much more competitive (although I still don’t expect the Marlins to be in first for too much longer despite their solid starting pitching.)
4. If the division comes down to the last week of the season, the Phils will have the advantage.
The Mets wrap up their season with three three-game series…two on the road against the Nats and Marlins, and one at home against the Astros. For the Phillies, they finish with two four-games series against the Brewers and Astros, and a three-game series with the Marlins (their last seven games are at home.) The Marlins always seem to play late season spoiler, but being at home for their last two series of the season should give the Phillies a big boost.
Can’t argue with that yet.
5. The Phillies will really miss J.C. Romero.
So far this has certainly proven to be true…neither Jack Taschner nor Scott Eyre have been able to fill Romero’s role as the shutdown lefty out of the pen. The bullpen as a whole has actually struggled so far, ranking 16th in the Majors with a 4.54 ERA. Interestingly enough though they still have a 7-2 record and opponents are hitting just .213 against them. As for the Mets; their new and improved pen has the fourth lowest ERA at 3.22, but also has a 1-5 record and is allowing a worse batting average to opposing hitters than the Phils relief arms (.254.) The division could come down to how each team’s bullpen holds up down the stretch.
6. The Phils will look to add a right-handed power bat to the bench.
This is still a serious area of need considering the man tabbed to fill this role (Miguel Cairo) is hittless so far in just 8 ABs this season.
7. Keep an eye on Jason Donald, John Mayberry, and Lou Marson in the minors.
Lou Marson is already up in the Majors filling in for an injured Carlos Ruiz, while Mayberry (.271, 5, 15) and Jason Donald (.267, 1, 5) have been doing well down in Lehigh Valley 21 games into their season.
8. Chan Ho Park will be a pleasant surprise as the fifth starter.
Step #2 for fixing the Phillies starting rotation: replace Chan Ho with J.A. Happ. Park’s strong Spring Training hasn’t translated to a strong regular season (further evidence that Spring Training stats are useless) and Happ has been strong out of the pen. Do I get do-overs on some of these predictions?!?
9. Chase Utley will take a month or so until he is back to his old self.
Speaking of do-overs…if Chase isn’t totally healthy right now (.347, 8, 21, .479) I cant’ wait to see how he plays when he is back to 100%. I figured he may come slow out of the gate due to his lack of ABs in Spring Training, but that just hasn’t been the case. I’ve learned my lesson…NEVER doubt #26!
10. The Phillies will repeat as World Champions.
If the pitching improves and the team can stay healthy this isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Then again, how much can you really invest into just the first month of the regular season?
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