Joe Blanton and the rest of the Phillies starting rotation has gotten off to a slow start so far in '09.
Entering the team’s first title defense in 28 years we knew a few things would be a given for the 2009/2010 Phillies. Obviously the offense would continue to be a strong point for the team, and the addition of Raul Ibanez to an already potent lineup has proven that to be more than true. Unfortunately for the Phils the other half of the equation has been flat out terrible.
Out of the 30 Major League teams the Phillies have the 28th worst ERA (5.44), and their pitching staff has given up the most long balls out of any team to this point (53 in just 29 games to be more exact.) While Cole Hamels appears to be returning to form the rest of the starters have been God-awful, and the bullpen hasn’t been protecting leads as well as they were last season (although getting J.C. Romero back from suspension should help the pen in the long run.)
All of this has to be making Phillies fans wonder “what the hell is going on?!? Isn’t this mostly the same pitching staff that led us to the Promised Land?” The names on that roster are indeed similar, and it is no small coincidence that their performances up to this point have been extremely similar to what we saw from them last season.
It’s easy to forget how bad Brett Myers was before the All Star Break in 2008 (3-9 with a 5.84 ERA) after his strong second half (7-4, 3.06), but it’s encouraging that he’s been at least decent to start this season. You have to figure he’ll round into shape eventually particularly given the way he “rounded into shape” in the offseason.
Jamie Moyer has allowed four or more runs in all but one start so far this season. His anemic numbers could be a warning that his advanced age could be catching up to him, but for a guy who relies more on his control than pitch velocity I have a hard time believing he’s finished just yet. It’s much more likely that Moyer is just a bit of a slow starter: looking back at his stats last season Jamie struggled mightily in April (4.50 ERA, .336 opp BA) and May (4.40 ERA, .292 opp BA) before settling down over the next two months to the tune of a 3.17 ERA and limiting opposing batters to just a .218 average. If Moyer struggles well into June and July this year all bets are off, but I’d be willing to bet he’ll step up and pitch much better as the season goes on (much better meaning an ERA in the high 3′s instead of the low 7′s.)
Joe Blanton started ’08 in Oakland and was flat out awful before being traded to Philly where he was slightly less awful, and surprisingly clutch in the playoffs. Much like Myers and Moyer, Blanton really improved from before the All Star break (5-12, 4.96, .284) to after the break (4-0, 4.20, .246.) If he can keep that ERA hovering near 4.00 he’ll be getting the job done as the 4th starter.
As for Chan Ho Park, he may be the exception to this rule given he spent all of last season in the Dodger’s bullpen. He was pretty solid up until his ERA ballooned above 6.00 in August and September, but I really don’t see that having too much bearing on how he has performed as a starter. Give him a few more starts to see if he can build off that gem in New York, and if he can’t then it’s time to see what we have in J.A. Happ.
So what does it all mean…
If you take one thing from all these numbers it needs to be the fact that almost every starter that has taken the hill for the Phillies so far this season got off to a slow start in 2008 before turning it around by the All Star break. Whether the Phillies can afford to fall behind early in race for the NL East is open for debate, but have faith in the starters. Chances are they’ll only get better from here on out (after all, they can’t get much worse can they?)
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