A starter such as Seattle's Erik Bedard may be available for trade, but should the Phils go after him?
On SI.com Tim Marchman points out how trades for established stars in Major League Baseball usually end up being lopsided favoring the team that dumps the established talent. It’s an interesting piece that is worth checking out.
In the column Marchman specifically mentions the Phillies as the team with the greatest need for another starting pitcher…
“After Lee and Peavy, the sexiest pitcher who might plausibly be traded is Seattle’s Erik Bedard, and the team with the biggest need is Philadelphia, which has endured some execrable pitching from Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer. Here you run into a classic problem. Seattle, albeit under previous management, gave up Adam Jones, who increasingly looks like he could be a keystone player for a pennant-winning club, as well as top pitching prospect Chris Tillman for Bedard. It was a lousy deal, and it puts pressure on Seattle to get something valuable in return.
Unfortunately for the Mariners, Bedard isn’t worth something really valuable. He would improve the Phillies by perhaps three wins, the value of which would be a fraction of what a mildly dodgy Phillies prospect such as shortstop Jason Donald would be worth if he panned out. This is a good reason why the Phillies wouldn’t make such a trade, especially as they would likely have to add parts for appearances’s sake. Why should they? Because they have a great core that’s in its prime, and they’re the defending champions. Don’t let the actuarial table blind you to the reality that average players can be replaced.”
Marchman’s general point is valid: giving up young talent for established players is usually not a good idea.I take issue with his criticism of Brett Myers (who has pitched well of late) and I’d say there are other teams more in need of starters, but don’t let that distract you from his main argument.
I’m going to give you two pitchers, and you tell me which one you’d rather have:
Player A: 28 year-old starter
3-3, 6.14 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 48 K in 9 MLB starts.
Player B: 24 year-old starter
2-0, 2.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 31 K in 7 MLB starts.
Player A is Joe Blanton, while player B is one of the three-minor leaguers the Phils gave up to acquire Blanton at the trade deadline last season, Josh Outman.
While Blanton was a valuable piece in the Phils title run Outman has proven to be an excellent starter for the A’s, and another piece to the deal Adrian Cardenas was hitting over .400 in AA before earning himself a promotion to AAA. The Phils clearly got the short end of the stick in this encounter with Billy Beane.
That trade is a perfect example of what Tim Marchman is talking about. The question then becomes: if the trade deadline rolls around and the Phillies have a shot at Bedard or Peavy, would you pull the trigger? Recent history suggest Ruben Amaro Jr. might just want to sit this one out.
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