On Opening Day I listed 10 keys/predictions for the 2009 Phillies. Let’s take another look at how they have turned out so far…
1. The Phillies title hopes hinge on the top of the rotation.
Brett Myers’ injury really pushed the Phillies starting pitching from bad to worse, but over the past month or so Joe Blanton has been dominant, and J.A. Happ is showing signs of becoming a very reliable #3. It will be interesting to see how Pedro Martinez fits in and whether Ruben Amaro can pull off a deal for a top of the line starter, but I still think it’s fair to say that if the Phils are going to repeat the starters will have to keep this up and Cole Hamels will have to be better than he’s been lately.
2. Raul Ibanez will be a more than suitable replacement for Pat the Bat.
The 37-year old just made his first All Star appearance and his numbers (.309, 22, 60) crush those of his predecessor (.232, 4, 28). Burrell has had some injury issues in Tampa too and it’s pretty safe to say that if the Phils brought back Burrell over Ibanez they probably wouldn’t be in first place right now.
3. The Phils will have to have a better regular season to win the division.
The NL East has actually been surprisingly bad so far this season. The Central and even the West have looked stronger up to the All Star break, with teams like San Fran and Colorado surprising. How bad has the NL East been? The Phillies are the only team in the division with a positive run differential. Interestingly enough though the division outlook after 86 games back in 2008 was quite similar. The Phils were in first with a 47-39 record, with the Marlins 2.5 games back and the Mets 4.5 back. The Mets came on strong in the second half last season, so even with all the injuries they’ve had it’s never safe to count them out. The Phils are in a better place this year than they were last year, but it’ll be fascinating to see if the Marlins can stick around, or if the Braves or Mets will make a late season charge to challenge the Phils.
4. If the division comes down to the last week of the season, the Phils will have the advantage.
The Mets wrap up their season with three three-game series…two on the road against the Nats and Marlins, and one at home against the Astros. For the Phillies, they finish with two four-games series against the Brewers and Astros, and a three-game series with the Marlins (their last seven games are at home.) The Marlins always seem to play late season spoiler, but being at home for their last two series of the season should give the Phillies a big boost.
Can’t argue with that yet.
5. The Phillies will really miss J.C. Romero.
The Phils did miss Romero, but now that he and Lidge are back the bullpen finally looks to be returning to form. Madsen’s struggles though have been cause for concern. The 2009 version of the Phillies bullpen hasn’t come close to replicating their success from last season: if they had the Phils might be 8-10 games up in the division right now. At the same time it’s not necessarily fair to expect perfection (particularly out of Lidge.)
6. The Phils will look to add a right-handed power bat to the bench.
This is still a serious area of need. Miguel Cairo and Chris Coste failed to fill the role, and you’d have to figure somebody will be added before the deadline. The Phillies were looking at Ryan Spilborghs but the Rockies have been reluctant to move him.
7. Keep an eye on Jason Donald, John Mayberry, and Lou Marson in the minors.
Marson has been doing well in AAA (although surprisingly hasn’t been hitting for power.) It’s only a matter of time till he is called up. Mayberry started hot during his stint in the Majors but has cooled off considerably, and Donald is struggling in AAA (hitting just .230) and has been injured as well. All three however still figure to play prominent roles for the Phils in the near future.
8. Chan Ho Park will be a pleasant surprise as the fifth starter.
Haha…oops! I’m willing to give myself a pass here because Chan Ho has been excellent out of the pen over the past few weeks, but needless to say replacing him with Happ in the rotation was an excellent move.
9. Chase Utley will take a month or so until he is back to his old self.
Way off here. I’ll just repeat what I said before: NEVER DOUBT #26! Oddly enough though Jimmy Rollins hasn’t looked like his old self this entire season.
10. The Phillies will repeat as World Champions.
Still a very real possibility, but they really could use another starter (Halladay or Haren would do!) If they make a trade or two to get that pitching help and another righty bat they stand a great chance in the wide open National League.
