Hold the freaking phone just one second! Apparently the combined efforts of myself and Flyers’ beat writer Timmy P. are not enough to destroy these rumors. Just three days ago I wrote a nice little blurb on Examiner.com explaining why the Flyers don’t want to touch Dany Heatley. Here’s a little snippet:
The fact remains that unless the Flyers do something they will later regret Heatley will not becoming to Philadelphia. His production has taken a nose dive in recent years, and three Flyers produced more offense last season (Carter, Richards, and Gagne) than Heatley. Briere likely would have as well if not for injury issues. Giroux will soon probably be producing around there as well. There is no reason to give up more offense than would be gained by getting Heatley which is the only way the Senator would become a Flyer.
Well yesterday some writer on CrashTheCrease.com decided to give his own take on the Flyers’ offensive situation. According to this guy, Dustin Leed, not only are the Flyers still involved in talks with the Ottawa Senators, but they should even consider bringing the guy over from Ottawa. I’m not always the first to judge players complaining about their situation on a team because a lot of the time that player has a good reason to want out. Heatley though wants to be traded into a winning situation. He doesn’t like the organization in Ottawa and has begged to be traded. Then, when a deal was in place to ship him off to Edmonton, he completely blocked any attempts that the organization made to get the deal done before July 1st. At midnight that day he was due for a gignatic bonus, and the Senators didn’t want to have to shell out the extra millions for a player that didn’t want to play there. Well Heatley got his money regardless and didn’t want to join the Oilers. I wouldn’t want to go to Edmonton either, but if I was desperate to get out of a situation in Ottawa I certainly wouldn’t be all that picky.
So at the moment Heatley remains a Senator and despite rumors about Edmonton, Montreal, and New York the Flyers are somehow next on the parade. It makes a lot of sense though right? The Flyers just lost Knuble and Lupul so they should be looking for offense right? Not necessarily.
Pronger comes with his own offense which would generally cover Joffrey Lupul believe it or not. If you believe a full season out of Briere and Giroux combined won’t cover Mike Knuble’s offense then you’re imagining things.
So the Flyers are set offensively, thank you very much.
Does that mean that they should go after Heatley anyway based on this WIN NOW! approach the Flyers have going? Well, I’ll give you the facts and let you be the judge.
Trading Offense for Less Offense:
The rumors involving Heatley have pointed out a number of players as the main piece in the deal including Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, Danny Briere, Scott Hartnell, and Claude Giroux. For those keeping track at home those are all of our true offensive weapons with the exception of captain Mike Richards. Right now rumors involving Heatley to Philadelphia have us giving up two of these pieces or one of them along with top prospect James van Riemsdyk. I can assure you that is not going to happen. Here’s a breakdown of each player’s offense over the last four seasons (if applicable):
Dany Heatley (Age: 28) – $7.50m/year through 2013-14
- 2005-06: 82 GP – 50 G – 53 A – 103 P – 0.61 GPG – 1.26 PPG
- 2006-07: 82 GP – 50 G – 55 A – 105 P – 0.61 GPG – 1.28 PPG
- 2007-08: 71 GP – 41 G – 41 A – 82 P – 0.58 GPG – 1.15 PPG
- 2008-09: 82 GP – 39 G – 33 A – 72 P – 0.48 GPG – 0.88 PPG
Danny Briere (Age: 31) – $6.50m/year through 2014-15
- 2005-06: 48 GP – 25 G – 33 A – 58 P – 0.52 GPG – 1.21 PPG
- 2006-07: 81 GP – 32 G – 63 A – 95 P – 0.40 GPG – 1.17 PPG
- 2007-08: 79 GP – 31 G – 41 A – 72 P – 0.39 GPG – 0.91 PPG
- 2008-09: 29 GP – 11 G – 14 A – 25 P – 0.38 GPG – 0.86 PPG
Simon Gagne (Age: 29) – $5.25m/year through 2010-11
- 2005-06: 72 GP – 47 G – 32 A – 79 P – 0.65 GPG – 1.10 PPG
- 2006-07: 76 GP – 41 G – 27 A – 68 P – 0.54 GPG – 0.89 PPG
- 2007-08: 25 GP – 7 G – 11 A – 18 P – 0.28 GPG – 0.72 PPG
- 2008-09: 79 GP – 34 G – 40 A – 74 P – 0.43 GPG – 0.94 PPG
Mike Richards (Age: 24) – $5.75m/year from now until the end of time
- 2005-06: 79 GP – 11 G – 23 A – 34 P – 0.14 GPG – 0.43 PPG
- 2006-07: 59 GP – 10 G – 22 A – 32 P – 0.17 GPG – 0.54 PPG
- 2007-08: 73 GP – 28 G – 47 A – 75 P – 0.38 GPG – 1.03 PPG
- 2008-09: 79 GP – 30 G – 50 A – 80 P – 0.38 GPG – 1.01 PPG
Jeff Carter (Age: 24) – $5.00m/year through 2010-11
- 2005-06: 81 GP – 23 G – 19 A – 42 P – 0.28 GPG – 0.52 PPG
- 2006-07: 62 GP – 14 G – 23 A – 34 P – 0.23 GPG – 0.55 PPG
- 2007-08: 82 GP – 29 G – 24 A – 53 P – 0.35 GPG – 0.65 PPG
- 2008-09: 82 GP – 46 G – 38 A – 84 P – 0.56 GPG – 1.02 PPG
Scott Hartnell (Age: 27) – $4.20m/year through 2012-13
- 2005-06: 81 GP – 25 G – 23 A – 48 P – 0.31 GPG – 0.59 PPG
- 2006-07: 64 GP – 22 G – 17 A – 39 P – 0.34 GPG – 0.61 PPG
- 2007-08: 80 GP – 24 G – 19 A – 43 P – 0.30 GPG – 0.54 PPG
- 2008-09: 82 GP – 30 G – 30 A – 60 P – 0.37 GPG – 0.73 PPG
Claude Giroux (Age: 21) – $0.82m/year through 2010-11
- 2007-08: 2 GP – 0 G – 0 A – 0 P – 0.00 GPG – 0.00 PPG
- 2008-09: 42 GP – 9 G – 18 A – 27 P – 0.21 GPG – 0.64 PPG
Basically, the gist of the matter is giving up two of those six pieces for Heatley would be absurd. Granted Heatley is better offensively than any of them over the last four seasons, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to hit 50 goals and 100 points in Philadelphia. Even then though, all six of Philadelphia’s top forwards are basically guaranteed anywhere from 20 to 50 goals in a healthy season. Four of them are pretty much set for anywhere between 70 to 90 points. Two for one would in fact hurt this offense even if Heatley plays his best despite the fact that he’s likely a future hall-of-famer if he continues his pace.
Salary Figures
At $7.50m a year Heatley would immediately become our biggest cap hit, overtaking Briere by $1.00m a season. For the Flyers that is just too much money for deal involving Heatley for a top six forward, prospect, and pick. Two roster players absolutely have to head Ottawa’s way in the deal. It obviously can’t be two of the Flyers’ top six forwards, and it won’t be any of Timonen, Coburn, Pronger, or Parent. On top of that it can’t be Claude Giroux for salary cap reasons or Mike Richards since he is the captain. That leaves Gagne, Carter, Briere, and Hartnell for the forwards and Carle and Jones for the defensemen.
Ottawa needs mobile puck-moving defensemen so Jones or Carle is certainly a start. If the Flyers are taking back another gigantic, long-term contract like Heatley’s though it would almost have to be Carle who may be expendable due to the Pronger acquisition. Parent has shown he can play in the top four, and Jones’ salary, which comes off the books this upcoming offseason, will go a long way toward re-signing both Coburn and Parent.
So from there all the package needs is a forward and either a pick or prospect. It likely won’t be Carter due to his age and status in Philadelphia. He recently was runner-up for the Rocket Richard trophy behind only Alexander Ovechkin. Players like him don’t come along often.
Gagne likely won’t be the one to go only because his contract will likely be used to give Giroux and Carter new contracts in two years. The four of Briere, Giroux, Carter, and Gagne will not all fit on this team two years from now. Should Gagne be traded for another large, long-term contract like Heatley’s it would almost secure a ticket out for Giroux or Carter unless Briere is moved. That’s not likely to happen.
Hartnell is certainly a possibility with the physicality that Philadelphia recently brought in on the blueline and among the bottom six. Everyone loves Hartnell, but he’s easily the smallest loss to the offensive stockpile out of the six. Included with Carle’s long-term contract the two would cancell out the salary taken on by bringing Heatley on board for at least a couple of seasons.
Briere even with his N0-Movement Clause remains the most likely candidate for the Flyers to ship out. Briere loves Philadelphia, and though he’s getting older he does not deserve half of the punishment he receives from the fans. In a healthy season Briere is the most offensively gifted forward on this team. He may be soft and a detriment in the defensive zone, but he is still an outstanding forward. At $6.50m he is the only offensive threat that could come close to Heatley’s salary, and it’s no question that Heatley would be an upgrade ignoring Heatley’s locker-room antics.
All of that being understood there is a choice of three packages that are about all I’ll offer from the Flyers point of view:
- Briere + Jones + Nodl for Heatley
- Hartnell + Carle for Heatley
- Briere + Carle for Heatley + another low cap hit roster player.
Any other deals just don’t make sense for the Flyers. Philadelphia right now holds the position of power over Ottawa, and if Holmgren can pull off a move that betters the orange and black for the future then I’m all for it. Unfortunately deals that would actually benefit the Flyers are limited.
I highly doubt Heatley joins the orange and black.
WINTER CLASSIC TICKET INFORMATION AND LOTTERY
As per Flyers.NHL.com:
Registration at www.nhl.com/winterclassic for the general public, random ticket drawing will begin on Tuesday, September 15, 2009, at Noon, Eastern Time (ET), and will run through Monday, October 5, 2009 at 11:59 a.m. ET. Registrations received after the deadline will not be accepted. There is no fee to register. Limit one entry per person or household. Registrants selected in the drawing will be notified by October 20, 2009 of their opportunity to purchase one pair of tickets (seated together).
Basically if you want to get tickets you’ll have to register with the NHL. Each household is limited to one registration for the lottery. There is no fee to register, but if you somehow get your number called (I guess) you are allowed to purchase a pair of tickets to the game.
Season ticket holders for both the Flyers and Bruins will get their tickets some other way. I don’t know how they’re going to do that, but the odds are if you have a season ticket plan or even a partial season ticket plan your odds of getting a seat to the game is much higher; astronomically higher.
There are 37,400 seats at Fenway and the demand for tickets is nearly double what it was last year.
