We are now into the third day of October, and the defending World Series Champs are gearing up for another long playoff run. A majority of the National League contenders are struggling, and most of the 2008 Championship team is back with an improved pitching staff. Sounds like our Fightins are in pretty good shape right? Wrong. Here are a few reasons why 2009 just won’t be the Phillies’ year.
**You may be wondering why I’d write such a post? For two reasons: one, because I have some serious concerns about this team and two, because typically the exact opposite of what I say ends up happening. You can call this a “reverse-jynx” list, if you’d like**
1.) The curse of “The Pen”.
Last season a one run lead heading into the 8th was as good as a guaranteed win, that’s how dominant the back of the Phillies bullpen was. This year? To say Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge are liabilities is an understatement of epic proportions. The odds are better that Rick Reilly will actually write a column that doesn’t suck for ESPN than they are that Lidge regains his 2008 form in the playoffs.
Let’s face it: “The Pen” completely screwed over this unit. If guys haven’t been injured, oftentimes repeatedly (Romero, Lidge, Eyre, Condrey, Park) than they’ve been woefully ineffective (Lidge, Madson “the closer”). The series certainly brought us some great moments…Chan Ho Park ordering an “American Taco” at Del Taco ranks pretty high up there for me…but at the end of the day a unit that was one of the best last season turned into one of the worst in the blink of an eye. When you are trying out Tyler freaking Walker at closer, you know you have some serious issues.
Could history repeat itself? The way Lidge is pitching, it's an inevitability.
All I’m going to say is this: If Charlie trots Lidge out in a 2-run or less save situation in the postseason he will shatter his closer’s confidence faster than Albert Pujols can say “deja vu all over again.” I’d bet every dime in my incredibly miniscule bank account that this is going to happen if Lidge gets another chance. Were the 11 regular season blown saves enough, Charlie? What about Madson? The same guy who converted exactly 10 out of 16 save opportunities this season? Thanks, but no thanks.
Is Jose Mesa available?
2.) The offense is not nearly as good as you think it is.
Todd Zolecki wrote an excellent article about the Phillies offense not too long ago, and there’s no doubt that this unit can be very productive…
“They lead the National League in runs (756), doubles (293), home runs (211), RBIs (727), extra-base hits (533), total bases (2,310) and slugging percentage (.448). They are second in on-base-plus-slugging percentage (.783).”
Not too shabby, but the Phils are struggling in a couple crucial areas.
“They are just 11th in batting average (.257), 11th in hitting with runners in scoring position (.252) and 15th hitting with runners in scoring position with two outs (.215). The Phillies strike out in 20.9 percent of their total at-bats, but 23.1 percent with runners in scoring position, and 26.2 percent with runners in scoring position with two outs.”
What you have here is an offense that struggles with situational/clutch hitting and is way too reliant on the long ball. That may get you through the regular season but come playoff time, facing better pitching, it’s a recipe for disaster. The Phillies also have a strange tendency of getting shutdown by mediocre pitchers (see their losses over the past two days to 3-11 Felipe Paulino and the eternally-mediocre Ryan VandenHurk.)
Don’t try to lecture me either about how the Phillies had the same struggles but still won it all last year either…this is 2009, not 2008.
3.) The competition will be tougher.
The Brewers? Cake walk. The Dodgers? Good hitting but mediocre pitching (same case this year too). The Rays? Choked once they got to the big stage. The road to the 2008 World Series was not overly challenging for the Phils, as a matter of fact their stiffest challenge may have come from Mother Nature herself.
This year though the field is wrought with worthy adversaries. The Rockies are the hottest team in baseball right now, and while the Phillies may be there better team on paper a potential matchup with Colorado would have “2007 ” written all over it. The Dodgers may be the worst team out of the group, but still have a dangerous lineup (despite Manny going AWOL post-drug suspension) and have the revenge factor going for them. As for the Cardinals, the have the best player in baseball (Pujols) and finally found a bat to protect him in the lineup (Matt Holliday.) Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Piniero form a heck of a 1-2-3 punch in the starting rotation too. Keep in mind we aren’t even factoring in some of the talented teams in the AL that could challenge the Phils in the World Series.
4.) The Phils are tanking down the stretch.
Over the past few seasons the Phillies have gone on incredible tears, going 13-4 to finish out ‘07 and 13-3 to close out ‘08. They needed to go on those runs just to lock up a spot in the playoffs. 2009 however has been a completely different story: while the rest of the division floundered the Phils blew chance after chance to pull away before finally backing into the division title late in the season. The Braves were hot on the Phillies heels too, and had there been another week or two left in the season I don’t doubt they would have taken over the division lead entirely.
Eric Bruntlett: the So Taguchi of the 2009 Phillies.
Remember those hot finishes? Since September 20th the Phillies are just 6-7, and are wrapping up the season with no sense of urgency whatsoever while Charlie rests key starters with homefield advantage on the line. Remember the Flyers last season, how they sleepwalked through the last game of the season at home against the Rangers, losing home ice against the Penguins in the process? Think that had a lot to do with their first round exit? The Phillies are about to make the same mistake, playing these last few games of the season without showing the slightest interest in being competitive (a sure sign you don’t care about winning: starting Eric Bruntlett and Miguel Cairo in back-to-back games.)
5.) The starters are bipolar, to say the least.
I have one simple question that I want you to answer honestly: do you really think Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are capable of delivering solid back-to-back starts throughout the postseason? They both have been so up and down over the past few months that it’s hard to know what to expect from them on a nightly basis. Joe Blanton has clearly pitched over his head all season long, can he keep it up under pressure? What about J “Don’t call me J-A” Happ, who has never started a high pressure playoff game before?
Given the bullpen’s struggles there will be even more pressure on the starters to pitch late into games, but after being overworked all season long it’s hard to say they won’t run out of gas entirely in the playoffs. Those 110+ pitch counts will get to you eventually; just ask C.C. Sabathia.
Make sure to check back tomorrow as our very own Kieran Kelly will be giving you some reasons why the Phillies WILL repeat as the World Champions of Baseball.
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