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Guest Post: Amaro’s Folly

Posted by Roman Zubarev On March - 8 - 2010

Guest writer Joe Gallagher returns to pick a bone with Ruben Amaro:

A little over two months ago, our Philadelphia Phillies were sitting pretty. They had just won 2 Pennants and a World Series title in two years. They had held a stirring and emotional parade just a year and a half ago. The city was and still is in love with them. They had perhaps the top lineup in all of baseball and a top of the line farm system. They were the envy of every other team in baseball. Then they messed up. They traded one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball, a man who almost single-handedly guided them through the postseason, Cliff Lee. They also sold their farm system for Roy Halladay. Halladay then rode in as a White Knight, brandishing an arsenal of crippling fastballs and wicked, knee buckling breaking balls. Roy is supposed to cure all. He is supposed to lead the Phillies to their 2nd World Series title in 3 years. Here’s why, no matter what happens, the Phillies messed up.

Now, this article is not my condemnation of the Phillies acquiring Roy Halladay. I do believe that Halladay is in fact the best pitcher in baseball. He has proved durable, and downright nasty. He outsmarts hitters like Mr. Burns steals money from Springfield. When Halladay is on the mound, there is no doubt that the show stops – all eyes are on him. No, this article is about Ruben Amaro, the Phillies young, headstrong General Manager, whose mistake may cost this team the ultimate prize.

Like I said, this team was the envy of baseball just two months ago. They appeared to be a dynasty in the making with that powerful lineup, solid pitching staff, and phenomenal minor league farm system. Look, I have loved my Phillies all 16 years I have been alive, through the days of Rico Brogna and Tyler Greene and I cannot say I have ever been more pleased in my life. Now, I know that sounds shallow, or stupid, or ridiculous, but I love baseball. For the past 11 or so years prior to 2008, almost every time I saw 11:11 strike the clock I wished the Phils a World Series win. So, to see them in this position was truly unbelievable.

Consequently, when I heard they traded for Roy Halladay on December 15, 2009, I was even happier. But then I heard that Cliff Lee would be sent to Seattle as part of the deal. That excitement quickly turned to a feeling of exasperating emptiness. See, in late July of ’09, Ruben Amaro pulled an all-time heist, acquiring Cliff Lee for a package of prospects nowhere near Lee’s worth. Lee, as I said above, proceeded to make himself very comfortable in Philly, baffling hitters and pitching the Phils through the playoffs with stuff made of legends. You thought Cole Hamels was a cool customer in ’08, well how about Lee’s one handed, practically yawning, nab of the baseball in Game 1 of the World Series? That is a moment I do not think I will ever forget.

But the Phillies did not close the deal. The bats went cold with the fall air and the rest of the pitching staff collapsed. So, Amaro figured he would go out and get the best pitcher available to push his guys over the top. Only problem is, as a result, he got worse. He traded a package of Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D’Arnaud for Hallday. Drabek was considered their top pitching prospect and is supposed to be at least a #2 starter with ace potential. Michael Taylor is a guy I’m a huge fan of but was not going to fit into the Phillies’ plans anytime soon, as the corner outfield positions are locked up and he is already almost 24. D’Arnaud, however, was their only polished catching prospect at this point and with Carlos Ruiz turning 31, the trade left no successor in waiting.

Still, I am not condemning the trade of the prospects. Trading prospects works for me if it can help push the team towards the ultimate goal. I philosophize that you should always seize the moment rather than living your whole life waiting for the future. The problem with the whole ordeal was that Ruben then was so insecure about trading his farm that he decided he needed some retribution. He traded Cliff Lee for Phillipe Aumont, Juan Carlos Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies. These were not the most highly regarded prospects in baseball. Amaro essentially traded a top of the line pitcher for a not-so top of the line collection of prospects. That is the kind of move that gets GMs fired.

Now, sure you might argue that money was the reason for this move. The Phillies could not possibly afford to keep Lee and Halladay together long term. Well, that may be true, but they certainly could have kept them together for one year. Imagine a front line rotation of Halladay, Lee, and a rejuvenated Cole Hamels. Yep, that’s right – downright unstoppable. That rotation also leaves room for injury. You would have not one, maybe two, but possibly THREE aces.

So you say, what about the future? Well then after the Phillies celebrate World (Insert Chase Utley’s adjectival phrase) Champions Part 2 with another smashing parade, they would offer Lee salary arbitration. He would probably decline seeing that he wants his first big contract, which at 31 or 32 years old is very understandable. By declining that salary arbitration the Phillies would be granted two additional first round picks in the next Major League Baseball Draft. With those additional picks, right there is the potential for more talent than the Phillies received for Lee from Seattle. Say he accepts the arbitration, well then you have Cliff for another year at maybe 15 million or so. Still though, there would be no commitments long term. Amazing isn’t it? That Ruben Amaro can make such a vital miscalculation, and he can still be so celebrated.

See, it is widely accepted that Mr. Amaro upgraded his starting pitching with the acquisition of Roy Halladay. But then again how much better can Halladay pitch in the playoffs than Cliff Lee did last year, when every time he took the hill, Scott Graham could be heard somewhere shouting “Put this one in the win column for the Phightin’ Phils’!” But even if you remain adamant that Halladay is a better pitcher than Lee, which overall I will concede that he is, ever so slightly, you cannot rationally argue that Ruben Amaro succeeded in making the team’s standing better. He decimated his farm system and may have cost the Phillies two maybe three World Championships. I say three, because if he was willing to trade Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud now. Remember the reason they did not acquire Halladay this past July was that they were unwilling to part with Drabek. He could have pulled both trades and had Halladay, Lee, and likely another parade in ’09. It truly baffles me.

The karma of the deal can be spotted if you look to Lee’s middle name: Phifer. Disambiguated it is: Phillie Lifer. Not anymore. Sorry, Ruben you may have your true love, Roy Halladay, the best pitcher in the game, but amazing you screwed up the standing that I and so many other Phillies fans have cherished for so long: the envy of baseball.

Our only hope now is that “Amaro’s Folly” turns out the same as the famed “Seward’s Folly” (the acquisition of Alaska from Russia, which was met by much criticism) – with success. The fact of the matter is, however, even with a World Series win, a costly blunder was made. And at that point success won’t come because of Ruben Amaro, it will come in spite of him. I leave you with the only words I can find nestled in my limited vocabulary that adequately describe the issue, “UnbeLEEvable.”

I would love to hear your thoughts.

Signing off, saying you stay gritty, Philadelphia – I’m Joe Gallagher.

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  • Seth

    First of all, it's four months later, and I cannot believe we are still going on about this. Second, your point about building for the future is an inadequate representation of the situation. Yes, they would receive two first-round picks. Instead of that, they got two guys that are *already* in the farm system and aren't going to choose college over single-A ball.

    Here's another thing: Who is to say that Cliff Lee is going to be as good next year? Keep in mind that Lee was sent down to the minors in 2007, and he had some downright AWFUL outings last year. He lost four of his last six regular season starts (with two wins against the Nats). Everyone likes to talk about his lackadaisical catch of a pop-up during the World Series. I don't buy it. As B.A. as it looked, I'd rather have an ace who has some fire during Game One.

    I'm not saying that I was all for this trade, but I'm not adamantly against it or about to call it a blunder on Amaro's part. The Phillies were not guaranteed a championship just because they would have had Lee and Halladay. They are theoretically a better team for the next few seasons instead of just this year. I'll take that in a heartbeat.

  • joegallagher

    I appreciate your input, Seth. And yes, I do understand that it is 4 months later, haha. But my problem is that to me it was SUCH a blunder and SUCH a disappointment that I cannot just let it go. See, you may argue that he was sent down in '07, but by saying that you're going by the old “well anything can happen” idea. Which is fine. But you see from a business perspective, Lee was at the peak of his trade value. I find it hard to believe that the best Ruben Amaro could get for Cliff Lee was 3 B-quality prospects. And if it was then WHY TRADE HIM?! It's just frustrating to me that he felt like he had to trade him. You and I both know he fit into the plan financially at least for this year, hell he's making 1.5 million more than what Moyer is making this year! (And I have a whole 'nother issue with the handling of Moyer's contract last year, but I won't go ranting about Amaro's faults there) Point is, they could have made it work. And they didn't. He sold his farm, which okay, I'm fine with. (I'm not fine with the fact that he didn't just pull the trigger in July, but I wasn't involved in the negotiations so of course we can only speculate the truth.) But then he was SO insecure about THAT trade that he had to go get less than he should have for Lee. It's all about maximizing value, and frankly Ruben did not.

    And I understand what you're saying about having three guys you know about. But look at it from the other end. By going with the draft picks they get to pick THEIR guys. The guys they scouted and they liked. And guys with possibly more potential down the road. And as much as people talk about how unpredictable the Major League draft is, and I'm not saying it isn't, I do believe that a fair share of those “busts” are the result of teams not being able to pony up the money to sign the first round talent so they settle for later round talent early in the draft. Lately, the Phillies have been willing to spot that money and the draft has really helped them out in the past decade or so.

    Now, I will tell ya, I'm certainly not gonna root against them. I hope Halladay pitches them to a World Series, and another, and another, and another, and so on. I will support Ruben Amaro, because I do think he's an intelligent guy. And I hope Phillipe Aumont, Juan Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies all become Hall of Famers. I just don't think they will. And fact is, Amaro failed to get market value for a top 5 pitcher in the game. My only hope is that they can overcome this. I hope I'm wrong, but I think I'm right. Either way, go Phils!

  • Connor

    Great stuff Joe

  • rick

    Grammatically flawed; argumentativelly superb.

  • joegallagher

    Haha, yes I know, right! I couldn't believe how many errors there were. I take pride in being clean grammatically, so I do not know what was up there. I would like to formally apologize right here to all who read this about that. Thanks for the read though – I appreciate it.

  • tommymoe

    Joe, great piece of writing; however, I will reiterate what Seth said, “[I]t's four months later, and I cannot believe we are still going on about this.” Well despite the fact that I moved on from this, I just want to acknowledge one huge problem the Phillies faced. Ruben's folly would have been keeping Lee for one more year and cutting ties (arbitration offer or not) without getting something in return. He actually extremely impressed me with the way he handled this. As a Philadelphia fan, it seems strange that almost all of our teams have frugal owners. From Joe Banner to David Montgomery and the rest of the contingency, GMs have tough decisions to make with a tight wallet in Philly. With the unofficial salary cap that was set on the Phillies, Ruben (with Pat Gillick) had to comprise a way to meet the $140 million ceiling. At this current point, the Phillies are facing financial problems with hopes to keep the same line-up for 2011. Yes, that means Jayson Werth's possible new contract. Werth is entitled to the top dollar contract, and if he hits the market, he very will get what is deserved. This would have made it an impossibility for the Phillies to offer arbitration to Lee and/or resign Werth. He cannot gamble with offering arbitration to Lee and risk taking the chance of him saying yes. Remember this as well, Ruben actually held ground on what he said at the trade deadline in July. Toronto wanted both Drabek and J.A. Happ. He managed to get Toronto to accept his original offer of prospects with the addition of Drabek/Happ. Also, Ruben wasted no time by inking Doc to an extension that is well under the market value. I believe the Penn Charter Alum (shout out to my friends from PC) managed to pull the wool over their eyes.

    Now, I offered my opinion take it or leave it, but I would to offer my insight to what I consider a possible folly by Ruben. It could very well be a four year contract signing of Raul(llllllll) Ibanez. Readers are probably writing me off right now, but please let me explain. The numbers and run Ibanez had before injury were and still are phenomenal. However, his age causes a concern for me. He is definitely worth the contract, but Ruben seemed to overlook one thing: his depth of corner outfielders in the farm system. We have Dominic Brown, (before the trade) Michael Taylor, and John Mayberry, Jr. All three have great reputations, and the front office has “high hopes” for them in the Show. At this time, I would like to go back to my thoughts on Jay W. I feel it’s essential to re-sign Werth and keep the team young. Unless the front office budges, the Phillies will not offer him the contract he will seek. Now, as much as I love and respect the game of Jayson aka Grizzly Adams and Ibanez, I must remember (as do others) that this is a business. So here is my prediction: by the trade deadline, I expect Ruben to either deal Raul Ibanez or Jayson Werth for a lefty to join J.C. Romero in the bullpen (mind you that Romero is our only LHP in the pen and he is not 100% yet). Furthermore, I expect Dominic Brown to become a fixture in the starting 9. It seems all too obvious that Werth has the better trade value, but I expect Ruben to handle this as he has with past situations. Now if someone bites for #29, the Phillies will manage to free up money that will go towards a Werth extension. I am hoping the latter works out and our right fielder remains the spirit of the clubhouse. I feel this trade is important because, if Ruben cannot get the funds to ink Werth to a new contract, I do not want the Fightins to end up empty handed if Werth leaves in Free Agency. To put this entire paragraph together, I would like to conclude that the Phillies have no choice but to enter the second half of the season with one of the fan favorites wearing another uniform and a rookie in the outfield.
    Mind you, my writing is as amateur as my baseball predictions. I do not expect everyone to agree, but absorb it and give it a thought.

  • joegallagher

    tommymoe, I really appreciate you insight. As for your “amatuer predictions,” remember: every opinion is a good opinion so don't shy away from voicing yours. My thoughts: I agree with pretty much everything you're saying. Werth is very verrrrrrry important to the ball club, he's that much needed right handed bat, he works the count, and he is just a tremendous athlete. Keeping him long term should be something the Phillies struggle with. And I also agree, Ibanez's signing looks good right now, but as I lamented when the signing occured, it's gonna be reallllllll rough possibly as soon as this year. His skills do not seem to have diminished…yet, but his ability to bounce back from injury really showed – as he really wasn't the same hitter after that early to mid season season injury. As for the outfield depth, I do like Dominic Brown, but I will say I was pretty upset to see Michael Taylor go. I got the feeling from the times I saw Taylor play, plus when I look at some of his peripheral statistics that he could be a 30 homer, dare I say 30 steal guy at the major league level. I do feel as though he was vastly underrated and I was sad to see him go. Taylor had seemed more seasoned and potentially more ready to fill the void in left/right say Amaro does pull that mid season trade you suggest. Still, that point may be moot, seeing how Dominic Brown is raking down there in Spring Training right now.

    As for the point about the Cliff Lee trade, I'll say this: it makes sense in some ways. But not enough ways to me. I understand that offering arbitration is a risk. But frankly, it is a risk that to me is worth taking. It is very doubtful that he would accept seeing that he never has hit the open market before and he is 31, turning 32. If he does look at it this way: the highest arbitration ever awarded is 10 million to our very own Ryan Howard. That does not seem terribly steep for a top 5 or so pitcher in baseball such as Lee. Also even if the heavens would have opened up and he did accept, the Phillies could steer around that with some creativity by backloading the contract to Werth. They could escalate his pay each year and that would keep the payroll down initially. Now, I would not recommend that because they still have guys like Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Victorino, etc. that they are going to have to make decisions on soon, but it is a possibility. I do not know, however that getting a lefty to join Romero in the 'pen would be the way to go. It could be say you're trading Ibanez. But say, as unfortunate as it may seem that Ruben decides to trade Werth. If Werth proves throughout this regular seasion that last year was not a peak, he could garner some really nice prospects – that is of course if Ruben plays it right, because of course Lee SHOULD have garnered some nice prospects.

    As for my overall opinion on Ruben – I do really like the guy. I think he's smart, and he's made some really nice moves. So far, however, he has also made some really questionable ones. He neglected to offer Moyer arbitration last year and instead of getting Moyer for 1 year at say 4 million he signed Moyer for 2 years at 13 mil. Looks rough in hindsight – not to say Moyer won't bounce back and be himself, it IS hard to bet against the guy at this point, but you know, he struggled quite a bit last year for more money than he should have. I do still believe in Ruben very much, and I was amazed at how quickly he worked to get a cheap deal done with Halladay, not metion how much of a steal the inital Cliff Lee trade was. But I question the speculation that it was Happ that had to be involved, though neither of us can be sure seeing that we weren't involved with the negotiations. If it was Happ that was the hold up and those were the exact terms, I can buy what you're saying. I just feel as though at the end of their careers, Dominic Brown will be inferior to Michael Taylor. So say they threw Brown in July, it would suck, but I'm not sure it would be the worst thing in the end. Who knows, maybe that wasn't the holdup. That said, the Phillies know Brown and Taylor more than I do and their scouts know their players.

    All I can say is we'll have to see, I just feel duped. It seems to me he could have gotten it all done in July and had that monster of Halladay and Lee heading the rotation. It also seems to me that he could have kept Lee for this year. In closing I'll leave you with this: would you rather have Lee for another run at the World Series and two first round picks or 3 B-grade prospects who have many,many, many doubts surrounding them. Also, food for thought – look at it this way: The Phillies essentially traded: Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Travis D'Arnaud, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Carlos Carassco, and Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay, (a half of a year of Lee), Phillipe Aumont, Juan Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies.

    Aumont -maybe, maybe, slightly below Knapp's ceiling, though that's being generous
    Ramirez – similiar to Carrasco
    Gillies – probably similar to Donald in prospect status, though I'm not sure what the scouts have against him, he seems a little underrated.

    I think I'm taking the “other” side over the Phillies looking at it that way. I'll ety ou go now, after that lengthy response haha, and I do appreciate your insight. I defnitely do not doubt your knowledge, you're a smart guy. I hope you keep reading.

    Thanks,
    Joe

  • kiki vandeweghe

    courtney lee had 30 last night. sup.

  • Pappas Miracle

    Before when you argued with me about this whole thing, it would get me so pissed off that I wouldn't want to talk to you the rest of the weekend. Looking back now, I was in denial. Agreed: Amaro screwed up.

  • Pappas Miracle

    Before when you argued with me about this whole thing, it would get me so pissed off that I wouldn't want to talk to you the rest of the weekend. Looking back now, I was in denial. Agreed: Amaro screwed up.

  • joegallagher

    hahaha I appreciate your change of view. Thanks for reading man.

  • Bob Buttons

    Grow up dude like seriously…grammar?…seriously?…who really needs grammar? you could grow up to be like me, homeless but with a computer.

  • Bob B.

    I cannot agree more. It sickens me to think what we could have had…What we did have ! And now it's gone, forever.

    Unless they win it all this year, the Lee trade will go down as the dumbest move ever.

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