So, I went to the doctor the other day and found out that I’ve got a March Madness Fever!…and pneumonia. It’s cool though. It’s March. Tournament time ranks as one of my favorite periods in the whole year, right up there with the Victoria Secret Fashion Show, the Superbowl, any game of the World Series, and Leif Erikson Day. And now, because of my qualifications (that I am a whole lot lazier than most of you and I managed to spend more hours sitting on my couch watching college basketball) I will now be making several bold predictions. Let’s call them Joe’s Cold Hard Picks.
Bold Prediction #1: This year’s Davidson: BYU
Just as I did when I correctly picked Davidson in the Elite Eight two years ago, I have a feeling about BYU. Now, I could be terribly wrong, but hey, isn’t that part of the fun in March? You’re definitely sitting there saying, “No Joe, winning money is the fun in March.” Either way, here’s some advice: ride the Cougars if you’re in a huge pool and need something to separate your bracket. They can shoot the lights out and have played real good defense. According to espn.com’s statistics, BYU is the 5th ranked team in the country as far as point/possession and the 16th ranked team in the same area defensively. I like to use those two numbers as indicators. Those statistics indicate very well which teams can control the pace of the game. Also BYU possesses the boy who might just be this year’s tournament stud. Accordingly, presenting this year’s Steph Curry…
Bol
d Prediction #2 This year’s Steph Curry: Jimmer Fredette, BYU.
Jimmer shoots a 44.8% clip from the 3-point line and averages 21.7 points per game. He scored 45 against TCU just last week. So, you may say he can’t light up a power conference team. Well, in response, Jimmer torched Arizona for 49 earlier in the year. 49! As Jimmer goes so does BYU, so do not be surprised if Jimmer gets on a roll and BYU marches on into the Final Four. Yep, I said it — Final Four. Of course, do not curse me if BYU loses to that tough K-state team in the second round, they very well could — as whoever wins that game I believe will be headed to the Final Four. Still, I have a feeling, and I’m going to let it ride.
Bold Prediction #3: Duke will not disappoint.
Duke does not have as difficult of a bracket to escape and they will reach the Final Four. I also have them reaching the National Championship, but then falling to that loaded Kansas team. The difference in this year’s Devils? Star power. These Blue Devils have three players who can take over the game: Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith. In past years, Duke didn’t have that star power to take control of the game. The concern with the Dookies: lack of depth. After those three, Duke’s next leading scorer chips in 5.4 a game. While this is a concern, they do not turn the ball over and will out-rebound almost any team they meet. It will only be when they meet a deep, talented, and just overall loaded Kansas team in the final that they will falter.
Bold Prediction #4: Kentucky will lose in the Sweet Sixteen.
Against? Well this is another surprise, but Wisconsin. The #4 seeded Badgers are this year’s Michigan State: balanced and they just do not turn the ball over. As always, they are underrated, but come this time of year – no one wants to play them. Bo Ryan’s bunch really knows how to dictate the pace of the game and it will show against the more talented, but less seasoned Wildcats.
Bold Prediction #5: #16 Vermont could play #1 Syracuse tough.
Syracuse could overestimate the Catamounts, who are definitely worthy of a 15 or maybe even 14 seed. While I doubt the upset will actually be pulled, Syracuse will have fits with forward Marqus Blakely, especially with Arinze Onuaku, the Orange’s center, beat up. I do think Syracuse figures Vermont out, eventually bowing in the Elite Eight to BYU.
Bold Prediction #6: The First Round will be Upset City!
Here’s what I have – take them or leave them:
#12 UTEP over # 5 Butler – UTEP forward Derick Caracter will control the paint, as UTEP will storm all the way past the Murray State Racers in the second round and into the Round of Sixteen.
#13 Murray State over #4 Vanderbilt – The Racers’ effort will be too much for the lazy, underachieving Commodores to match. The Racers’ offensive and defensive efficiency, like BYU’s is very highly ranked and this will provide problems for an overrated Vandy team.
#11 Washington over #6 Marquette – How often is a power 6 conference team with 24 wins, an 11 seed? Not very often at all. Marquette is a tough team but Washington controls the game well and will win this game and the next against New Mexico, heading right into the Sweet Sixteen. This is a tough call, though, and whoever wins this game will make noise in the tourney.
#10 Missouri over #7 Clemson – Clemson wreaks of overrated. They disappoint a lot, and I do not see why this year is any different. Mizzou takes it.
#12 Utah State over #5 Texas A&M – Utah State is just a really good basketball team, at one point reeling off 17 consecutive wins. They will then beat Purdue into the ground as well on their way to the second weekend. Hey, why not, they do have a guy named Pooh! (Pooh Williams)
Dispelling a common call:
#13 Siena over #4 Purdue – Purdue has looked so depleted since the loss of star forward Robbie Hummel. As a result, this is becoming such a trendy upset pick that I’d beware of Purdue. They still have leading scorer E’Twaun Moore and low post presence JaJuan Johnson. Even so, many will pick Siena, who led by solid, smart basketball players, will just have a more balanced attack than Purdue. Still, the offensive minded Saints will be disrupted by the Boilermakers, who will keep the game in a half court, slowed down, knockdown-drag-out game. This will frustrate the Saints enough to allow a Purdue win. Purdue will then be upset in the next round at the hands of Utah State.
Not So Bold Prediction # 7: Kansas Wins it All.
Kansas is loaded. From Sherron Collins, to Xavier Henry, to the Morris brothers, to Cole Aldrich, Kansas simply can overwhelm anyone they play. It seems that one of the requisites for a championship run is a quality point guard and Sherron Collins will win you plenty of basketball games. For this tournament, no maybe not down the road, but for now, Sherron is a better player than John Wall. This will show as Collins will carry the team to a National Championship as Kentucky will falter in the Elite Eight. This one, just like last year’s is the obvious pick. Kansas in 2010.
Previewing the local teams:
Temple
Temple was unfortunate enough to have a really tough clumping of games. As good as Cornell is with Ryan Whittman, I see Temple beating them. The problem starts in the next round. Wisconsin is a solid, solid basketball team, and will evoke memories of last year’s Michigan State run. They will knock off Temple before they can sniff the second weekend. It really is a shame too, as I believe all three of these aforementioned teams can make it to the Sweet Sixteen, or even the Elite Eight. Wisconsin will be the one to prevail, unfortunately for everybody down on North Broad Street, and will eventually make it to the Final Four.
Villanova
Now, in my bracket I have Villanova losing to a tough Richmond team. Richmond has a great backcourt and Villanova has been limping into the tournament. My Cats have failed to put a good 20 minute defensive half together this year, and until they do, I can’t buy that they’ll be serious contenders. I am a huge Villanova fan, and honestly I cannot see Scottie Reynolds’s career ending like this, so in the back of my mind I do think that Villanova will end up rebounding and going pretty far in the tournament. Still, you have to remember that Richmond is very good. Besides, last year I also picked Villanova to lose in the second round, and we all know how that worked out. (So here’s to hoping my stupidity helps ‘Nova reach the Final Four again!)
Comments?
Concerns?
Need help with your bracket?
I’ll try my best. You stay gritty, Philadelphia. I’m Joe Gallagher.
